A separate lens on US equity froth — nine indicators a market commentator watches for signs the stock market is topping. Not part of the Dollar Liquidity score.
The board auto-refreshes every 6 hours. Each indicator is only as current as its source allows — daily feeds update every business day; weekly and quarterly ones update on their own schedule and are labeled below.
#1 · Bank Reserves
Reserve balances held by banks at the Fed — the deepest funding pool under every risk asset. If it drains, leveraged bids lose their fuel. Also tracked on the main DLI site as structural context (WRESBAL).
Creator threshold
Creator's escape line: an uncrisis-driven fast break below $2.5T = unconditional exit. ~$2.8–2.9T now.
#2 · SOFR−RRP
Secured overnight funding rate minus the ON RRP floor. When cash is plentiful SOFR sits at/under the floor; a positive, widening spread means dealers are bidding for cash — a precursor to systemic funding stress.
Creator threshold
Creator: yellow when the spread turns positive with reserves falling; red above ~3 bps (≈95th pct).
#3 · Cloud Capex QoQ
Lagging indicator
Combined quarter-over-quarter growth of hyperscaler capex (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META). The tell is the second derivative: absolute capex can keep setting records while its growth rate stalls — meaning the "incremental demand" priced into valuations has evaporated.
Creator threshold
Creator: when absolute capex still hits records but QoQ growth goes flat/negative, exit even on a strong print.
#4 · Top-10 Concentration
Combined market-cap weight of the ten largest S&P 500 companies. When an index rally is carried by a handful of mega-caps while breadth deteriorates, the structure is fragile: if the leaders stall, the index cascades.
Creator threshold
Creator: red-triggered; the top-10 weight has reached a distorted ~39.3%.
#5 · M2−Nasdaq Scissors
Broad money (M2) year-over-year growth minus the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) year-over-year return. A deeply negative gap means asset prices are sprinting far ahead of the money supply — a rally powered by concentrated leverage on existing cash, not by new liquidity.
Creator threshold
Creator: red-triggered; M2 +5.6% vs Nasdaq +29.7%, gap ≈ −24pp — deep divergence.
#6 · Insider Sell/Buy
Open-market insider sales versus purchases across all companies (S-Sale vs P-Purchase Form 4 filings), as a trailing-window sell/buy ratio. Executives know their own firms best — when they sell far more than they buy, they signal their stock is richly valued. Shown as a real-time trailing-sample proxy; the creator quotes a monthly figure, so our level is noisier than a full-month aggregate.
Creator threshold
Creator: not triggered; May ratio ~3.44×, still under the 5× danger line.
#7 · NDX Forward P/E
Aggregate forward price-to-earnings for the mega-cap complex that dominates the Nasdaq-100: combined market cap divided by summed next-fiscal-year estimated net income. It measures how many years of forward earnings investors will pay for growth.
Creator threshold
Creator: not triggered; forward P/E ≈ 24.96×, still under the 30× crash line.